1.2.2Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth11
1.3CO2 emissions of selected Asian countries compared to western countries. 12
1.4Future energy supply and security in Asia. 12
1.5Nuclear power for Asia. 13
1.6Case scenarios of economic development and resource development17
1.7Bibliography. 18
Figures
Figure 1: Unit Nations geoscheme subregions of Asia.6
Figure 2: Total population sizes, China and India, 2000-2035.8
Figure 3: Coal dominates energy consumption in China.9
Figure 4: Asia`s energy source mix. 10
Figure 5: Key indicators of seven Asian countries 11
Figure 6: Total CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per capita.12
Figure 7: Nuclear power reactors in China.15
Figure 8: Nuclear power reactors in India. 16
Tables
Table 1: Nuclear Electricity Net Generation.13
Content
Asia is the largest continent in both size and population. First of all we want to describe this continent with focus on china and India. The development of the population in these emerging countries in combination with Energy Demand is one reason for the economic growth. Asiameets up to84% of itsneeds for energy bythetwofossilfuels, coaland oil. Thus, Asia is theworld regionwiththehighestcarbon emissions. However,thepercapitaenergyconsumption is onlyhalf aslarge astheglobalaverage (Umbach, 2003: 114).
Thefollowingchapters deal withthedevelopmentofcommoditydemand in selectedareas of Asiaandtheresultingimpactonworldcommodityprices. Then,a comparisonofCO2emissionswith otherregions oftheworld will be made.
Because of the tragic occurrences in Japan, a part of the essay deals with Asia´s nuclear power plants, the need of this form of energy in the emerging countries and the long term strategy regarding nuclear energy.
In the last part, we try to point out some possible scenarios regarding the growth rates of the population, the economy and as a result of these, the role of China and India as global players and the impact of the environment in the region and the whole world.
1.1Asia-Worlds largest Continent
There are seven continents on earth. The largest continent is Asia. Asia makes up one third of all the land in the world. Asia has 49 different countries. The largest country is Russia with 6.500.000 square mile. There are six-sub regions, West Asia and Gulf, Southwest Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia, which in terms of population and area are bigger than Europe.
Asia is a mega-continent, an aggragation of sub-continents rather than of regions.(Sakamoto, 1988: 19).
Figure 1: Unit Nations geoschemesubregions of Asia
(the full wiki, 4th may 2011).
1.1.1Emerging countries
During the last 20 years, the buss world has gone through drastic but mostly positive changes. In the 1980s, buss on international terrain was essentially practiced by the 20 richest countries (EU, US and Japan) During the 1990s the term emerging market first appeared and is widely used nowadays.
China and India have gradually evolved their economics and political systems to embrace and flourish in global capitalism, reducing barriers and impediments around the flow of trade goods and capital. These two countries are expected to become the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services. High economic growth combined with enormous populations of these nations will translate into a large aggregations of wealth, creating ever more attractive world market. (Lynn, Wang, 2010: 10-15).
China
China's growth has been breathtaking, with an average annual real GDP growth rate of 9.1% from 1978 to 2008, faster than that achieved by any East Asian economic during their fastest growing periods. In February 2008 the World Bank reported that China's economy is the the third largest economy in the world and the biggest emerging market.
However, experts agree that China will become the most important economy within the next 15 to 20 years and will overtake the US economy in terms of GDP at purchasing power party exchange rate. (Kuil, 2008: 6-9).
Since its market-oriented reforms in 1979 China's economy has grown strong each year. They entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 helped to strengthen China's ability to maintain growth rates. Most quotas and other non-tariff barriers have been eliminated since its entry and sectors such as Banking, Travel & Tourism or Telecommunication have been opened for foreign investments. (Umbach, 2003: 104).
India
After decade of isolations and restrictions in 1991, India opened its economy for foreign firms and investors to integrate the country with the rest of the world. Now, the Indian market represent lucrative buss opportunities for international companies. Particularly industries such as IT, automotive, electronics or pharmaceutical are growing in India at rates of more than 10 per cent each year.
In total, the country’s GDP increases at around 7 per cent each year. This makes India the second largest emerging market and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. (Kuil, 2008: 6-9).
Presently, the Indian economy is the 10th largest in the world and if the growth will continue at the same rate, the country will become one of the most important global economics in the next 20 years. India's competitive advantage, besides low wages, is an excellent educational system which creates millions of highly- skilled workers. Lynn, Wang, 2010: 101).
1.1.2Demographics
China and the India are the only countries in the world with populations of more than one billion. According to the most recent censuses of each nation, there were 1.33 billion persons in China and 1.173 billion in India 2010and that population growth rates have been consistently higher in India than in China since the early 1970s and will remain so for years to come. (Umbach, 2003: 54).
Population change in a nation is births less deaths plus net international migration. At present, in both China and India, the number of births considerably exceeds the number of deaths. In 2010 there will be 16.19 million births in China, resulting in a crude birth rate of 12.17 births per 1,000 population. There are estimated to be just over half as many deaths in 2010 —9.17 million -- resulting in a crude death rate of 6.89 deaths per 1,000 population.
The difference between births and deaths, which is called natural increase, is even greater in India, where an estimated 25.03 million births are expected in 2010, resulting in a crude birth rate of 21.34 per 1,000, but only 8.83 million deaths, resulting in a crude death rate of 7.53 per 1,000. (DaVanzo, 2010: 2).
Figure 2: Total population sizes, China and India, 2000-2035
(DaVanzo, 2010: 2).
India’s population is projected to grow and surpassing China in 2025, whereas China’s population is projected to reach a maximum, of nearly 1.400 billion, in 2026 and to decrease thereafter.
1.1.3Asian Energy Demand and Competition
Asia is the fast growing market. China and Japan are the second and third largest consumers of imported energy. India is catching up fast. Asia is the new energy player in the coming decade. Though the Persian Gulf will remain the principal source of oil supplies, the Asian countries are actively engaged in diversifying their import market.
China is generously endowed with energy resources, special coal and renewable like hydropower, wind, biomass and solar. Also China possesses significant oil and gas resources and continues to enjoy some success in exploration within ist territory, ist reserves are to less for this growth.Thegoverment of china has a encouraged ist national oil companies to invest in developing oil resources abroad.
Those companies have investments in several countries.India and China have joined the group of the world’s biggest importers of oil and gas. China relies on its state energy companies to access new resources at home and abroad. India’s energy sector is mainly privatised. China's total energy consumption experienced a dramatic increase in the last three decades and doubled even during the short time lap of between 2000 and 2008.More than two thirds of China's energy relies on coal, making of this country World's largest coal consumer.(Umbach, 2003: 103-112).
(National Academy of engineering, 4th may 2011).
India’s rise as one of the world’s major energy consumers shows many parallels to China.India was the fifth largest consumer of oil in the world during 2006 according to EnergyInformation Agency. The Indian government estimates that the country’senergy consumption will rise 50 % by 2015 based on 2005 levels. (Pan,2008: 209).
Similarly to China,reliable energy supply has become a limiting factor for the future development of India’seconomy, both for its emerging industry as for the country’s rural development.As China, most of India`s primary energy use relies on coal, though significantly less (41% against 70%). More of its energy comes from oil (which India has to import mostly) and from combustion renewable and waste (up to 27%).
This percentage, which may look surprising at first glance, is due to the fact that it is the traditional source of energy of India's rural areas. (International Energy Agency. 2010: 247).
1.2Energy for Asia
The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) predicts an increase of the world’s primary energy need of 1.6 times between the year 2005 and 2030. Asian countries contribute a significant part. According to the fast increase of population and economic growth in Asia, the Institute projects a double growth of energy demand.
In 2030 China will need 27 percent of world energy reserves and India 12 percent. As a result of the high power demand, 90 percent of the need will be supplied by fossil fuels. Especially coal and oil are the most important sources.However the consumption of natural gas will grow on the one hand for households on the other hand for the generation of power (IEEJ, data/en/data/pdf/441.pdf, 3th may 2011).
1.2.1Asia`s energy source mix
The energy source mix of Asia varies from country to country, for example China has the highest consumption of coal, over 70 percent of the primary energy need. As opposed to this, Korea and Japan are dependent on nuclear power with 14 percent and 11 percent. The energy consumption of Asia grows in ten years, until 2008 with an annual rate of 5.2 percent, if this growth rate is maintained for the next three decades the need of energy will increase more than fourfold.
The resource coal is the one with the highest growth rate in consumption, almost 7 percent per year. Asia is more dependent on coal than the USA or Europe. The consumption is at 51 percent in Asia, 17 percent in the EU and 25 percent in the USA. Also in the south of Asia the need for coal increases, in Malaysia and Indonesia around 12 percent per year in one decade.
The big players China, Japan and Korea are responsible for a consumption of 75 percent of Asia’s energy (Apollo Investment Management, 3th may 2011). Figure 1 shows the energy consumption of Asia sorted by source, from 1965 to 2010.
Figure 4: Asia`s energy source mix
(Apollo Investment Management, , 3th may 2011).
1.2.2Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth
The main factor for the production process is energy, thus the energy consumption is closely related with the level of economic performance in a country. Highly industrialized nations have learned to separate economic growth from proportional input of energy. This is possible through the input of more efficient technology. (Chaturvedi, 1997: 114).
The table below shows the key factors of seven developing Asian countries, among others the population, GDP, per capita GDP, per capita energy consumption.
Figure 5: Key indicators of seven Asian countries
(Chaturvedi 1997: 45).
The countries shown inFigure5 achieved a high economic growth in the decade from 1980 to 1992. But there are some differences between countries in economic output. For example China is the biggest country with a population of nearly 1.2 billion which had the highest average growth rate of GDP in that period with 9.2 percent and a per capita primary energy consumption of 655.1 kilograms of oil equivalents.
In comparison Korea is a small country with a population of nearly 44 million, which had an average GDP growth of 8.7 percent from 1980 to 1992 and a per capita primary energy consumption of 2657 kilograms of oil equivalents. Korea and Taiwan had the highest per capita GDP in 1992, 6739 US Dollars and 7730 US Dollars. The Philipp trail behind the other countries with the weakest average GDP growth rate of 1.4 percent and the lowest per capita primary energy consumption of 215.5 kilograms of oil equivalents.
The table above shows that countries with a higher growth of GDP have higher per capita energy consumption and vice versa.
Summarizing you can say that there are some important factors which have a direct impact on the energy consumption in emerging countries like India and China. First, the annual growth of population, second the economic growth and finally the development and application of new technologies (Chaturvedi, 1997: 114).
1.3CO2 emissions of selected Asiancountries compared to western countries
China is the world’s biggest CO2 emitting country in total numbers of nearly 6500 million metric tonnes, the USA is now on second position and close to 6000 million metric tonnes. Other Asian countries like India, Japan and South Korea are far behind China in total emissions. Right figure shows the CO2 emissions per capita, which shows a very different picture.
Nations like Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, South Korea and the Iran are showing nearly the same amount of emissions per capita in a range of circa 8 to 11 tonnes.
Figure 6: Total CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per capita. (Union of Concerned Scientists. , 4th may 2011).
What are the reasons that now China is one of the biggest polluter in the world? The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency says that one important fact for the explosion of Chinas emissions is the increasing need for coal for the electricity production and the rising cement production (The Guardian. 4th may 2011).
1.4Future energy supply and security in Asia
A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that more than 50 percent of the growing world oil demand is due to the transportation sector until 2020. The world will be still dependent on oil in the first half of the 21st century.
Dr. Michael May a former director of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory of Stanford University analyzed the long term energy situation and security in Asia. Summarizing you can say, that due to the economic growth in Asia the energy needs will be covered until the mid of coming century. The price of the energy supply will increase but will not slow down the economic growth.
But there are conditions that must be met, for example the international markets for resources must remain free and new investments must be made, which bring new supply for the market (Manning, 2000: 37).
1.5Nuclear power for Asia
After the tragic occurrences in Japan a new debate for nuclear power originated. But especially Asia is the main region in the world where electricity capacity and nuclear power is growing significantly. The greatest growths in nuclear generated power are in China, South Korea and India. The expected increase in China and India is about 5% per year.
In Asia there are seven countries with nuclear power plants, these are Russia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan and Taiwan. As shown in the table below, about one fourth of the world’s generated nuclear electricity hails from Asia.
Table 1: Nuclear Electricity Net Generation.
(EIA Energy Information Administration. 3rd May, 2011).
Supporters of nuclear generated power always argue with facts like “China and India are the two most populous countries, with nearly 37% of world’s population and an impressive economic growth of about 10% per year. They are already the 2nd and 5th worlds most energy consuming countries in the world. By considering these facts it is obvious that Che and Indian energy policy has a huge impact on the whole world economy and it is legitimate to see China´s and India’s energy challenges as the world energy challenges.” ((EIA Energy Information Administration 4th. May, 2011).
For example in China, the domestic electricity consumption in 2009 was 2643 billion kWh, which was an increase of about 6%, compared to 2008.Nuclear power lobbyists now try to cover these additional needs with nuclear power. In China, there are 13 nuclear power reactors in operation and more than 25 under construction and lots of more are in planning.
The aspiring target is to reach an increase in nuclear capacity to at least 80 billion kWh by 2020, 200 billion kWh by 2030, and 400 billion kWh by 2050. (EIA Energy Information Administration, fapps/ipdbprject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=27&aid=12&cid=regions,&syid=2004&eyid=2009&unit=BKWH, 4th. May, 2011).
The figure below shows a map of China with its nuclear power plants. As it shows, nearly all of the power plants are in the coastal areas where the economy is developing rapidly. Generally, nuclear plants can be built close to centers of demand, but this is also, as seen in Fukushima, one of the big problems in case of an accident.
Figure 7: Nuclear power reactors in China.
(World-nuclear.org, 3rd May, 2011).
For India, the situation is nearly the same. The electricity demand is also increasing rapidly. In 2008 the electricity consumption was 830 billion kWh. About 15 billion kWh of India’s electricity is supplied by nuclear power. The strategy is to increase the capacity to about 30 billion kWh within the next years, 63 billion kWh by 2032 and a share of 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050. (World-nuclear.org, 4th. May, 2011).
These goals of course only can be reached by new plants. The figure below shows the plants of India which are on line, or under construction on the right side and on the left side planned nuclear power plants.
Figure 8: Nuclear power reactors in India.
(World-nuclear.org, 3rdMay, 2011).
Russia was the first country with an operating nuclear power plant and currently has 31 nuclear plants with more than 150 billion kWh capacity. Half of the reactors in Russia are based on the same design as the Chernobyl plant and many of the plants are older than 30 years, which compiles the working lifetime of such plants. Russia plans to provide 23% of electricity in 2020 by nuclear power, therefore currently some new plants are under planning and construction.
South Korea has five nuclear power plants with 21 reactors on line which provide almost 40% of South Koreas electricity. It is planned to increase the share to about 56% by 2020 with 11 new reactors which are under construction or in planning.
In Taiwan three nuclear power plants are on line and in Pakistan, the seventh nuclear power generating country in Asia has two plants which can supply about 2,3% of the country’s electricity needs.(EIA Energy Information Administration. 3rd May, 2011).
In Europe some nuclear power generating countries, like Germany have already announced to cancel their nuclear power programs and shut down all their plants. Also in Japan thousands of people demonstrated after the worst case accident in Fukushima for an atomic-free future. In April 2011, also the worst case accident of Chernobyl had its 25 year anniversary.
Let´s observe how atomic programs are developing and if this “clean” form of energy generation is the future indeed.
1.6Case scenarios of economic development and resource development
Of course there are lots of scenarios concerning the economic future and of course China and India with its rapid economic growth plays an important role in that scenarios. Probably, the most popular scenarios are China as emperor of buss, China as emperor of the world, China as bigger Brazil and China as emperor of Asia.
In this scenario China grows peacefully and plays by the rules. After a wave of political and economic reform, China is willing to play in economic and environmental rules by western standards. The nation provides a credible, consistent infrastructure and cracks down on piracy. Beijing's streets are full of stores selling legitimate software and DVDs.
As predicted by a Goldman Sachs study in 2003, China's GDP surpasses that of the United States by 2041. More Europeans are learning Mandarin than English as a second language. Che workers become so prosperous that industry starts turning to Africa for cheap outsourced labor.
EMPEROR OF THE WORLD
In this scenario, China acquires economic power so quickly that it retains the ability to play by its own rules. Through sheer scale, it forces trade partners to play by those rules, too. The Yuan replaces the dollar as the global currency standard and intellectual property rules are all forgotten. China's military spending continues to rise, the nation fosters alliances with India and Russia, and the United States loses leadership in world affairs.
China's growth rate is short-lived and goes down. China then becomes a bigger Brazil. The country struggles in environmental crisis, political unrest, poverty and government corruption.
EMPEROR OF ASIA
China grows, but only as fast as its neighbors.
In this scenario, China grows at the same rate as its neighbors and finds itself jockeying for resources with India, Japan, and Russia. A web of Asian economic interdependence evolves. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan sign trade treaties and mutual defense pacts. Beijing's streets are dominated by Che companies. Service-sector outsourcing leaves China and moves to Africa and South America (Randall, Goldhammer,2006).
1.7Bibliography
Chaturvedi, Pradeep. 1997. Sustainable energy supply in Asia. New Dehli. Concept Publishing Company.
EIA-Energy Information Administration. 2011.
< th. May 2011).
Eichengreen, Barry J. 2010. Emerging giants. New York: Oxford University Press.
Guardian.
< (4th may 2011).
International Energy Agency. (2010). “World Energy Outlook 2010, Zusammenfasung”.<> (1st May 2011).
Lynn, D., Wang, T. 2010. Emerging Market Real Estate Investment: Investing in China, India, and Brazil. New Jersy. John Wiley & Sons.
Manning, Robert A.2000. The Asian energy factor: myth and dilemmas of energy, security and the Pacific Future. New York. Palgrave.
National Academy of engineering.
< =Print,Print,Print>, (4th may 2011).
Pan,Girijesh. 2008. India, the emerging energy player. India: Saurabh Printers.
Randall, Doug.Goldhammer, Jesse.2006,Four Futures for China Inc., Aug2006, Vol. 7 Issue 7, p34-36 in Buss 2.0.
Mail-in Exercise 1. Assignment: Who is involved in the experiment? The experiment involves researchers from Messerschmitt-Bölkow-Blohm and the University of Munichs Biological Institute. Additionally, cows on a farm in Germany play a crucial role in the experiment. What are the researchers…
...[weiter lesen]
G 2 - Cached Page: Tuesday 16th of April 2024 05:13:04 AM
DE
