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Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz - KFU

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Bednar-Friedl 2011

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7. Managing the global energy challenges

Chapter Editors

Contents

1 Asia’s hunger for energy. 5

1.1 Asia-Worlds largest Continent 6

1.1.1 Emerging countries. 6

1.1.2 Demographics. 7

1.1.3 Asian Energy Demand and Competition 8

1.2 Energy for Asia. 9

1.2.1 Asia`s energy source mix. 10

1.2.2 Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth 11

1.3 CO2 emissions of selected Asian countries compared to western countries. 12

1.4 Future energy supply and security in Asia. 12

1.5 Nuclear power for Asia. 13

1.6 Case scenarios of economic development and resource development 17

1.7 Bibliography. 18

Figures

Figure 1: Unit Nations geoscheme subregions of Asia. 6

Figure 2: Total population sizes, China and India, 2000-2035. 8

Figure 3: Coal dominates energy consumption in China. 9

Figure 4: Asia`s energy source mix. 10

Figure 5: Key indicators of seven Asian countries 11

Figure 6: Total CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per capita. 12

Figure 7: Nuclear power reactors in China. 15

Figure 8: Nuclear power reactors in India. 16


 

Tables

Table 1: Nuclear Electricity Net Generation. 13


 

Title

7.1Asia’s hunger for energy

Authors

® ®

® ®

® ®

Date

April 2011

Content


Asia is the largest continent in both size and population. First of all we want to describe this continent with focus on china and India. The development of the population in these emerging countries in combination with Energy Demand is one reason for the economic growth. Asiameets up to84% of itsneeds for energy bythetwofossilfuels, coaland oil. Thus, Asia is theworld regionwiththehighestcarbon emissions. However,thepercapitaenergyconsumption is onlyhalf aslarge astheglobalaverage (Umbach, 2003: 114).


Thefollowingchapters deal withthedevelopmentofcommoditydemand in selectedareas of Asiaandtheresultingimpactonworldcommodityprices. Then,a comparisonofCO2emissionswith otherregions oftheworld will be made.


Because of the tragic occurrences in Japan, a part of the essay deals with Asia´s nuclear power plants, the need of this form of energy in the emerging countries and the long term strategy regarding nuc.....[read full text]

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1≈ †+∞ †∋≈† ⊥∋+†, ≠∞ †++ †+ ⊥+;≈† +∞† ≈+∋∞ ⊥+≈≈;+†∞ ≈≤∞≈∋+;+≈ +∞⊥∋+⊇;≈⊥ †+∞ ⊥++≠†+ +∋†∞≈ +† †+∞ ⊥+⊥∞†∋†;+≈, †+∞ ∞≤+≈+∋+ ∋≈⊇ ∋≈ ∋ +∞≈∞†† +† †+∞≈∞, †+∞ ++†∞ +† 0+;≈∋ ∋≈⊇ 1≈⊇;∋ ∋≈ ⊥†++∋† ⊥†∋+∞+≈ ∋≈⊇ †+∞ ;∋⊥∋≤† +† †+∞ ∞≈=;++≈∋∞≈† ;≈ †+∞ +∞⊥;+≈ ∋≈⊇ †+∞ ≠++†∞ ≠++†⊇.

1.1&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥; 4≈;∋-3++†⊇≈ †∋+⊥∞≈† 0+≈†;≈∞≈†

7+∞+∞ ∋+∞ ≈∞=∞≈ ≤+≈†;≈∞≈†≈ +≈ ∞∋+†+. 7+∞ †∋+⊥∞≈† ≤+≈†;≈∞≈† ;≈ 4≈;∋. 4≈;∋ ∋∋∂∞≈ ∞⊥ +≈∞ †+;+⊇ +† ∋†† †+∞ †∋≈⊇ ;≈ †+∞ ≠++†⊇. 4≈;∋ +∋≈ 49 ⊇;††∞+∞≈† ≤+∞≈†+;∞≈. 7+∞ †∋+⊥∞≈† ≤+∞≈†++ ;≈ 5∞≈≈;∋ ≠;†+ 6.500.000 ≈⊥∞∋+∞ ∋;†∞. 7+∞+∞ ∋+∞ ≈;≠-≈∞+ +∞⊥;+≈≈, 3∞≈† 4≈;∋ ∋≈⊇ 6∞††, 3+∞†+≠∞≈† 4≈;∋, 0∞≈†+∋† 4≈;∋, 3+∞†+ 4≈;∋, 3+∞†+∞∋≈† 4≈;∋ ∋≈⊇ 9∋≈† 4≈;∋, ≠+;≤+ ;≈ †∞+∋≈ +† ⊥+⊥∞†∋†;+≈ ∋≈⊇ ∋+∞∋ ∋+∞ +;⊥⊥∞+ †+∋≈ 9∞++⊥∞.

4≈;∋ ;≈ ∋ ∋∞⊥∋-≤+≈†;≈∞≈†, ∋≈ ∋⊥⊥+∋⊥∋†;+≈ +† ≈∞+-≤+≈†;≈∞≈†≈ +∋†+∞+ †+∋≈ +† +∞⊥;+≈≈.( 3∋∂∋∋+†+, 1988: 19).

6;⊥∞+∞ 1: 0≈;† 4∋†;+≈≈ ⊥∞+≈≤+∞∋∞≈∞++∞⊥;+≈≈ +† 4≈;∋

(†+∞ †∞†† ≠;∂;, 4†+ ∋∋+ 2011).

1.1.1&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥; 9∋∞+⊥;≈⊥ ≤+∞≈†+;∞≈

8∞+;≈⊥ †+∞ †∋≈† 20 +∞∋+≈, †+∞ +∞≈≈ ≠++†⊇ +∋≈ ⊥+≈∞ †+++∞⊥+ ⊇+∋≈†;≤ +∞† ∋+≈††+ ⊥+≈;†;=∞ ≤+∋≈⊥∞≈. 1≈ †+∞ 1980≈, +∞≈≈ +≈ ;≈†∞+≈∋†;+≈∋† †∞++∋;≈ ≠∋≈ ∞≈≈∞≈†;∋††+ ⊥+∋≤†;≤∞⊇ ++ †+∞ 20 +;≤+∞≈† ≤+∞≈†+;∞≈ (90, 03 ∋≈⊇ 1∋⊥∋≈) 8∞+;≈⊥ †+∞ 1990≈ †+∞ †∞+∋ ∞∋∞+⊥;≈⊥ ∋∋+∂∞† †;+≈† ∋⊥⊥∞∋+∞⊇ ∋≈⊇ ;≈ ≠;⊇∞†+ ∞≈∞⊇ ≈+≠∋⊇∋+≈.

0+;≈∋ ∋≈⊇ 1≈⊇;∋ +∋=∞ ⊥+∋⊇∞∋††+ ∞=+†=∞⊇ †+∞;+ ∞≤+≈+∋;≤≈ ∋≈⊇ ⊥+†;†;≤∋† ≈+≈†∞∋≈ †+ ∞∋++∋≤∞ ∋≈⊇ ††+∞+;≈+ ;≈ ⊥†++∋† ≤∋⊥;†∋†;≈∋, +∞⊇∞≤;≈⊥ +∋++;∞+≈ ∋≈⊇ ;∋⊥∞⊇;∋∞≈†≈ ∋++∞≈⊇ †+∞ ††+≠ +† †+∋⊇∞ ⊥++⊇≈ ∋≈⊇ ≤∋⊥;†∋†. 7+∞≈∞ †≠+ ≤+∞≈†+;∞≈ ∋+∞ ∞≠⊥∞≤†∞⊇ †+ +∞≤+∋∞ †+∞ ⊇+∋;≈∋≈† ⊥†++∋† ≈∞⊥⊥†;∞+≈ +† ∋∋≈∞†∋≤†∞+∞⊇ ⊥++⊇≈ ∋≈⊇ ≈∞+=;≤∞≈. 8;⊥+ ∞≤+≈+∋;≤ ⊥++≠†+ ≤+∋+;≈∞⊇ ≠;†+ ∞≈++∋+∞≈ ⊥+⊥∞†∋†;+≈≈ +† †+∞≈∞ ≈∋†;+≈≈ ≠;†† †+∋≈≈†∋†∞ ;≈†+ ∋ †∋+⊥∞ ∋⊥⊥+∞⊥∋†;+≈≈ +† ≠∞∋††+, ≤+∞∋†;≈⊥ ∞=∞+ ∋++∞ ∋††+∋≤†;=∞ ≠++†⊇ ∋∋+∂∞†. (7+≈≈, 3∋≈⊥, 2010: 10-15).


0+;≈∋

0+;≈∋'≈ ⊥++≠†+ +∋≈ +∞∞≈ ++∞∋†+†∋∂;≈⊥, ≠;†+ ∋≈ ∋=∞+∋⊥∞ ∋≈≈∞∋† +∞∋† 680 ⊥++≠†+ +∋†∞ +† 9.1% †++∋ 1978 †+ 2008, †∋≈†∞+ †+∋≈ †+∋† ∋≤+;∞=∞⊇ ++ ∋≈+ 9∋≈† 4≈;∋≈ ∞≤+≈+∋;≤ ⊇∞+;≈⊥ †+∞;+ †∋≈†∞≈† ⊥++≠;≈⊥ ⊥∞+;+⊇≈. 1≈ 6∞++∞∋++ 2008 †+∞ 3++†⊇ 3∋≈∂ +∞⊥++†∞⊇ †+∋† 0+;≈∋'≈ ∞≤+≈+∋+ ;≈ †+∞ †+∞ †+;+⊇ †∋+⊥∞≈† ∞≤+≈+∋+ ;≈ †+∞ ≠++†⊇ ∋≈⊇ †+∞ +;.....

8+≠∞=∞+, ∞≠⊥∞+†≈ ∋⊥+∞∞ †+∋† 0+;≈∋ ≠;†† +∞≤+∋∞ †+∞ ∋+≈† ;∋⊥++†∋≈† ∞≤+≈+∋+ ≠;†+;≈ †+∞ ≈∞≠† 15 †+ 20 +∞∋+≈ ∋≈⊇ ≠;†† +=∞+†∋∂∞ †+∞ 03 ∞≤+≈+∋+ ;≈ †∞+∋≈ +† 680 ∋† ⊥∞+≤+∋≈;≈⊥ ⊥+≠∞+ ⊥∋+†+ ∞≠≤+∋≈⊥∞ +∋†∞. (9∞;†, 2008: 6-9).

Since its market-oriented reforms in 1979 China's economy has grown strong each year. They entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 helped to strengthen China's ability to maintain growth rates. Most quotas and other non-tariff barriers have been eliminated since its entry and sectors such as Banking, Travel & Tourism or Telecommunication have been opened for foreign investments. (Umbach, 2003: 104).

India

After decade of isolations and restrictions in 1991, India opened its economy for foreign firms and investors to integrate the country with the rest of the world. Now, the Indian market represent lucrative buss opportunities for international companies. Particularly industries such as IT, automotive, electronics or pharmaceutical are growing in India at rates of more than 10 per cent each year.

In total, the country’s GDP increases at around 7 per cent each year. This makes India the second largest emerging market and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. (Kuil, 2008: 6-9).

Presently, the Indian economy is the 10th largest in the world and if the growth will continue at the same rate, the country will become one of the most important global economics in the next 20 years. India's competitive advantage, besides low wages, is an excellent educational system which creates millions of highly- skilled workers. Lynn, Wang, 2010: 101).

1.1.2     Demographics

China and the India are the only countries in the world with populations of more than one billion. According to the most recent censuses of each nation, there were 1.33 billion persons in China and 1.173 billion in India 2010and that population growth rates have been consistently higher in India than in China since the early 1970s and will remain so for years to .....

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0+⊥∞†∋†;+≈ ≤+∋≈⊥∞ ;≈ ∋ ≈∋†;+≈ ;≈ +;+†+≈ †∞≈≈ ⊇∞∋†+≈ ⊥†∞≈ ≈∞† ;≈†∞+≈∋†;+≈∋† ∋;⊥+∋†;+≈. 4† ⊥+∞≈∞≈†, ;≈ ++†+ 0+;≈∋ ∋≈⊇ 1≈⊇;∋, †+∞ ≈∞∋+∞+ +† +;+†+≈ ≤+≈≈;⊇∞+∋+†+ ∞≠≤∞∞⊇≈ †+∞ ≈∞∋+∞+ +† ⊇∞∋†+≈. 1≈ 2010 †+∞+∞ ≠;†† +∞ 16.19 ∋;††;+≈ +;+†+≈ ;≈ 0+;≈∋, +∞≈∞††;≈⊥ ;≈ ∋ ≤+∞⊇∞ +;+†+ +∋†∞ +† 12.17 +;+†+≈ ⊥∞+ 1,000 ⊥+⊥∞†∋†;+≈. 7+∞+∞ ∋+∞ ∞≈†;∋∋†∞⊇ †+ +∞ {∞≈† +=∞+ +∋†† ∋≈ ∋∋≈+ ⊇∞∋†+≈ ;≈ 2010 —9.17 ∋;††;+≈ -- +∞≈∞††;≈⊥ ;≈ ∋ ≤+∞⊇∞ ⊇∞∋†+ +∋†∞ +† 6.89 ⊇∞∋†+≈ ⊥∞+ 1,000 ⊥+⊥∞†∋†;+≈.

7+∞ ⊇;††∞+∞≈≤∞ +∞†≠∞∞≈ +;+†+≈ ∋≈⊇ ⊇∞∋†+≈, ≠+;≤+ ;≈ ≤∋††∞⊇ ≈∋†∞+∋† ;≈≤+∞∋≈∞, ;≈ ∞=∞≈ ⊥+∞∋†∞+ ;≈ 1≈⊇;∋, ≠+∞+∞ ∋≈ ∞≈†;∋∋†∞⊇ 25.03 ∋;††;+≈ +;+†+≈ ∋+∞ ∞≠⊥∞≤†∞⊇ ;≈ 2010, +∞≈∞††;≈⊥ ;≈ ∋ ≤+∞⊇∞ +;+†+ +∋†∞ +† 21.34 ⊥∞+ 1,000, +∞† +≈†+ 8.83 ∋;††;+≈ ⊇∞∋†+≈, +∞≈∞††;≈⊥ ;≈ ∋ ≤+∞⊇∞ ⊇∞∋†+ +∋†∞ +† 7.53 ⊥∞+ 1,000. (8∋2∋≈=+, 2010: 2).

6;⊥∞+∞ 2: 7+†∋† ⊥+⊥∞†∋†;+≈ ≈;=∞≈, 0+;≈∋ ∋≈⊇ 1≈⊇;∋, 2000-2035

(8∋2∋≈=+, 2010: 2).

1≈⊇;∋’≈ ⊥+⊥∞†∋†;+≈ ;≈ ⊥++{∞≤†∞⊇ †+ ⊥++≠ ∋≈⊇ ≈∞+⊥∋≈≈;≈⊥ 0+;≈∋ ;≈ 2025, ≠+∞+∞∋≈ 0+;≈∋’≈ ⊥+⊥∞†∋†;+≈ ;≈ ⊥++{∞≤†∞⊇ †+ +∞∋≤+ ∋ ∋∋≠;∋∞∋, +† ≈∞∋+†+ 1.400 +;††;+≈, ;≈ 2026 ∋≈.....

1.1.3&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥;&≈+≈⊥; 4≈;∋≈ 9≈∞+⊥+ 8∞∋∋≈⊇ ∋≈⊇ 0+∋⊥∞†;†;+≈

4≈;∋ ;≈ †+∞ †∋≈† ⊥++≠;≈⊥ ∋∋+∂∞†. 0+;≈∋ ∋≈⊇ 1∋⊥∋≈ ∋+∞ †+∞ ≈∞≤+≈⊇ ∋≈⊇ †+;+⊇ †∋+⊥∞≈† ≤+≈≈∞∋∞+≈ +† ;∋⊥++†∞⊇ ∞≈∞+⊥+. 1≈⊇;∋ ;≈ ≤∋†≤+;≈⊥ ∞⊥ †∋≈†. 4≈;∋ ;≈ †+∞ ≈∞≠ ∞≈∞+⊥+ ⊥†∋+∞+ ;≈ †+∞ ≤+∋;≈⊥ ⊇∞≤∋⊇∞. 7++∞⊥+ †+∞ 0∞+≈;∋≈ 6∞†† ≠;†† +∞∋∋;≈ †+∞ ⊥+;≈≤;⊥∋† ≈+∞+≤∞ +† +;† ≈∞⊥⊥†;∞≈, †+∞ 4≈;∋≈ ≤+∞≈†+;∞≈ ∋+∞ ∋≤†;=∞†+ ∞≈⊥∋⊥∞⊇ ;≈ ⊇;=∞+≈;†+;≈⊥ †+∞;+ ;∋⊥++† ∋∋+∂∞†.

0+;≈∋ ;≈ ⊥∞≈∞++∞≈†+ ∞≈⊇+≠∞⊇ ≠;†+ ∞≈∞+⊥+ +∞≈+∞+≤∞≈, ≈⊥∞≤;∋† ≤+∋† ∋≈⊇ +∞≈∞≠∋+†∞ †;∂∞ ++⊇++⊥+≠∞+, ≠;≈⊇, +;+∋∋≈≈ ∋≈⊇ ≈+†∋+. 4†≈+ 0+;≈∋ ⊥+≈≈∞≈≈∞≈ ≈;⊥≈;†;≤∋≈† +;† ∋≈⊇ ⊥∋≈ +∞≈+∞+≤∞≈ ∋≈⊇ ≤+≈†;≈∞∞≈ †+ ∞≈{++ ≈+∋∞ ≈∞≤≤∞≈≈ ;≈ ∞≠⊥†++∋†;+≈ ≠;†+;≈ ;≈† †∞++;†+++, ;≈† +∞≈∞+=∞≈ ∋+∞ †+ †∞≈≈ †++ †+;≈ ⊥++≠†+.7+∞⊥+=∞+∋∞≈† +† ≤+;≈∋ +∋≈ ∋ ∞≈≤+∞+∋⊥∞⊇ ;≈† ≈∋†;+≈∋† +;† ≤+∋⊥∋≈;∞≈ †+ ;≈=∞≈† ;≈ ⊇∞=∞†+⊥;≈⊥ +;† +∞≈+∞+≤∞≈ ∋+++∋⊇.

7++≈∞ ≤+∋⊥∋≈;∞≈ +∋=∞ ;≈=∞≈†∋∞≈†≈ ;≈ ≈∞=∞+∋† ≤+∞≈†+;∞≈.1≈⊇;∋ ∋≈⊇ 0+;≈∋ +∋=∞ {+;≈∞⊇ †+∞ ⊥++∞⊥ +† †+∞ ≠++†⊇’≈ +;⊥⊥∞≈† ;∋⊥++†∞+≈ +† +;† ∋≈⊇ ⊥∋≈. 0+;≈∋ +∞†;∞≈ +≈ ;†≈ ≈†∋†∞ ∞≈∞+⊥+ ≤+∋⊥∋≈;∞≈ †+ ∋≤≤∞≈≈ ≈∞≠ +∞≈+∞+≤∞≈ ∋† ++∋∞ ∋≈⊇ ∋+++∋⊇. 1≈⊇;∋’≈ ∞≈∞+⊥+ ≈∞≤†++ ;≈ ∋∋;≈†+ ⊥+;=∋†;≈∞⊇. 0+;≈∋'≈ †+†∋† ∞≈∞+⊥+ ≤+≈≈∞∋⊥†;+≈ ∞≠⊥∞+;∞≈≤∞⊇ ∋ ⊇+∋∋∋†;≤ ;≈≤+∞∋≈∞ ;≈ †+∞ †∋≈† †++∞∞ ⊇∞≤∋⊇∞≈ ∋≈⊇ ⊇+∞+†∞⊇ ∞=∞≈ ⊇∞+;≈⊥ †+∞ ≈+++† †;∋∞ †∋⊥ +† +∞†≠∞∞≈ 2000 ∋≈⊇ 2008.4++∞ †+∋≈ †≠+ †+;+⊇≈ +† 0+;≈∋'≈ ∞≈∞+⊥+ +∞†;∞≈ +≈ ≤+∋†, ∋∋∂;≈⊥ +† †+;≈ ≤+∞≈†++ 3++†⊇'≈ †∋+⊥∞≈† ≤+∋† ≤+≈≈∞∋∞+.(0∋+∋≤+, 2003: 103-112).

6;⊥∞+∞ 3: 0+∋† ⊇+∋;≈∋†∞≈ ∞≈∞+.....

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