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Environmental Sciences

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Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz - KFU

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Bednar-Friedl 2011

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7. Managing the global energy challenges

Chapter Editors

Contents

1 Asia’s hunger for energy. 5

1.1 Asia-Worlds largest Continent 6

1.1.1 Emerging countries. 6

1.1.2 Demographics. 7

1.1.3 Asian Energy Demand and Competition 8

1.2 Energy for Asia. 9

1.2.1 Asia`s energy source mix. 10

1.2.2 Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth 11

1.3 CO2 emissions of selected Asian countries compared to western countries. 12

1.4 Future energy supply and security in Asia. 12

1.5 Nuclear power for Asia. 13

1.6 Case scenarios of economic development and resource development 17

1.7 Bibliography. 18

Figures

Figure 1: Unit Nations geoscheme subregions of Asia. 6

Figure 2: Total population sizes, China and India, 2000-2035. 8

Figure 3: Coal dominates energy consumption in China. 9

Figure 4: Asia`s energy source mix. 10

Figure 5: Key indicators of seven Asian countries 11

Figure 6: Total CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per capita. 12

Figure 7: Nuclear power reactors in China. 15

Figure 8: Nuclear power reactors in India. 16


 

Tables

Table 1: Nuclear Electricity Net Generation. 13


 

Title

7.1Asia’s hunger for energy

Authors

Date

April 2011

Content


Asia is the largest continent in both size and population. First of all we want to describe this continent with focus on china and India. The development of the population in these emerging countries in combination with Energy Demand is one reason for the economic growth. Asiameets up to84% of itsneeds for energy bythetwofossilfuels, coaland oil. Thus, Asia is theworld regionwiththehighestcarbon emissions. However,thepercapitaenergyconsumption is onlyhalf aslarge astheglobalaverage (Umbach, 2003: 114).


Thefollowingchapters deal withthedevelopmentofcommoditydemand in selectedareas of Asiaandtheresultingimpactonworldcommodityprices. Then,a comparisonofCO2emissionswith otherregions oftheworld will be made.


Because of the tragic occurrences in Japan, a part of the essay deals with Asia´s nuclear power plants, the need of this form of energy in the emerging countries and the long term strategy regarding nuclear energy.

In the last part, we try to point out some possible scenarios regarding the growth rates of the population, the economy and as a result of these, the role of China and India as global players and the impact of the environment in the region and the whole world.

1.1         Asia-Worlds largest Continent

There are seven continents on earth. The largest continent is Asia. Asia makes up one third of all the land in the world. Asia has 49 different countries. The largest country is Russia with 6.500.000 square mile. There are six-sub regions, West Asia and Gulf, Southwest Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia, which in terms of population and area are bigger than Europe.

Asia is a mega-continent, an aggragation of sub-continents rather than of regions.( Sakamoto, 1988: 19).

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India

After decade of isolations and restrictions in 1991, India opened its economy for foreign firms and investors to integrate the country with the rest of the world. Now, the Indian market represent lucrative buss opportunities for international companies. Particularly industries such as IT, automotive, electronics or pharmaceutical are growing in India at rates of more than 10 per cent each year.

In total, the country’s GDP increases at around 7 per cent each year. This makes India the second largest emerging market and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. (Kuil, 2008: 6-9).

Presently, the Indian economy is the 10th largest in the world and if the growth will continue at the same rate, the country will become one of the most important global economics in the next 20 years. India's competitive advantage, besides low wages, is an excellent educational system which creates millions of highly- skilled workers. Lynn, Wang, 2010: 101).

1.1.2     Demographics

China and the India are the only countries in the world with populations of more than one billion. According to the most recent censuses of each nation, there were 1.33 billion persons in China and 1.173 billion in India 2010and that population growth rates have been consistently higher in India than in China since the early 1970s and will remain so for years to come. (Umbach, 2003: 54).

Population change in a nation is births less deaths plus net international migration. At present, in both China and India, the number of births considerably exceeds the number of deaths. In 2010 there will be 16.19 million births in China, resulting in a crude birth rate of 12.17 births per 1,000 population. There are estimated to be just over half as many deaths in 2010 —9.17 million -- resulting in a crude death rate of 6.89 deaths per 1,000 population.

The difference between births and deaths, which is called natural increase, is even greater in India, where an estimated 25.03 million births are expected in 2010, resulting in a crude birth rate of 21.34 per 1,000, but only 8.83 million deaths, resulting in a crude death rate of 7.53 per 1,000. (DaVanzo, 2010: 2).

Figure 2: Total population sizes, Ch.....

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Figure 3: Coal dominates energy consumption in China.

(National Academy of engineering, 4th may 2011).

India’s rise as one of the world’s major energy consumers shows many parallels to China.India was the fifth largest consumer of oil in the world during 2006 according to EnergyInformation Agency. The Indian government estimates that the country’senergy consumption will rise 50 % by 2015 based on 2005 levels. (Pan,2008: 209).

Similarly to China,reliable energy supply has become a limiting factor for the future development of India’seconomy, both for its emerging industry as for the country’s rural development.As China, most of India`s primary energy use relies on coal, though significantly less (41% against 70%).

More of its energy comes from oil (which India has to import mostly) and from combustion renewable and waste (up to 27%). This percentage, which may look surprising at first glance, is due to the fact that it is the traditional source of energy of India's rural areas. (International Energy Agency. 2010: 247).

1.2         Energy for Asia

The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) predicts an increase of the world’s primary energy need of 1.6 times between the year 2005 and 2030. Asian countries contribute a significant part. According to the fast increase of population and economic growth in Asia, the Institute projects a double growth of energy demand.

In 2030 China will need 27 percent of world energy reserves and India 12 percent. As a result of the high power demand, 90 percent of the need will be supplied by fossil fuels. Especially coal and oil are the most important sources.However the consumption of natural gas will grow on the one hand for households on the other hand for the generation of power (IEEJ, data/en/data/pdf/441.pdf, 3th m.....

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Figure 4: Asia`s energy source mix

(Apollo Investment Management, , 3th may 2011).

The numbers given in the figure above shows the energy sources needed in million tons oil equivalents per year. Asia consumes more than 2,000 million tons of coal in year 2010. The consumption of oil increased in 1965 from about 100 million tons to 1,250 million tons in 2010. The energy used from gas started rising steadily in early 1980 up to 500 million tons in 2010. The use of energy from Hydropower was constantly on a low level until early 1980, since then it increases up to 250 million tons in 2010. Energy production from nuclear power started in 1965 and remains on the same level until the mid 1980s, since then it began to rise up to 150 million tons in 2010.

1.2.2     Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth

The main factor for the production process is energy, thus the energy consumption is closely related with the level of economic performance in a country. Highly industrialized nations have learned to separate economic growth from proportional input of energy. This is possible through the input of more efficient technology. (Chaturvedi, 1997: 114).

The table below shows the key factors of seven developing Asian countries, among others the population, GDP, per capita GDP, per ca.....

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Summarizing you can say that there are some important factors which have a direct impact on the energy consumption in emerging countries like India and China. First, the annual growth of population, second the economic growth and finally the development and application of new technologies (Chaturvedi, 1997: 114).

1.3         CO2 emissions of selected Asiancountries compared to western countries

China is the world’s biggest CO2 emitting country in total numbers of nearly 6500 million metric tonnes, the USA is now on second position and close to 6000 million metric tonnes. Other Asian countries like India, Japan and South Korea are far behind China in total emissions. Right figure shows the CO2 emissions per capita, which shows a very different picture.

China and India are the lowest CO2 emitters as measured by per capita emissions. But we must remember that this two countries are the most populous of the world, with each nearly 1 billion. Consequently in emissions per capita the United States of America are on first position with nearly 20 tonnes, followed by Canada with about 16 tonnes and Russia with circa 12 tonnes.

Nations like Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, South Korea and the Iran are showing nearly the same amount of emissions per capita in a range of circa 8 to 11 tonnes.

Figure 6: Total CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per capita. (Union of Concerned Scientists. , 4th may 2011).

What are the reasons that now China is one of the biggest polluter in the world? The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency says that one important fact for the explosion of Chinas emissions is the increasing need for coal for the electricity production and the rising cement production (The G.....

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1.5         Nuclear power for Asia

After the tragic occurrences in Japan a new debate for nuclear power originated. But especially Asia is the main region in the world where electricity capacity and nuclear power is growing significantly. The greatest growths in nuclear generated power are in China, South Korea and India. The expected increase in China and India is about 5% per year.

In Asia there are seven countries with nuclear power plants, these are Russia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan and Taiwan. As shown in the table below, about one fourth of the world’s generated nuclear electricity hails from Asia.

Table: Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion kWh)










2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009









China


47,95

50,33

54,85

62,6

65,33

66,6

India


15,04

15,73

15,59

15,91

13,17

14,75

Russia


137,47

140,22

144,3

151,81

154,18

154,95

Japan


268,32

289,52

288,26

250,64

245,22

265,76

Korea, South


124,18

139,44

141,31

135,79

143,41

140,38

Pakistan


1,93

2,41

2,55

2,31

1,74

2,64

Taiwan


37,94

37,97

37,88

38,51

39,26

39,49

Asia


632,83

675,62

684,73

657,58

662,3

684,56

World


2617,32

2639,24

2659,83

2597,7

2602,43

2568,22

Share


0,24

0,26

0,26

0,25

0,25

0,27









Table 1: Nuclear Electricity Net Generation.

(EIA Energy Information Administration. 3rd May, 2011).

Supporters of nuclear generated power always argue with facts like “China and India are the two most populous countries, with nearly 37% of world’s population and an impressive economic growth of about 10% per year. They are already the 2nd and 5th worlds most energy consuming countries in the world. By considering these facts it is obvious that Che and Indian energy policy has a huge impact on the whole world economy and it is legitimate to see China´s and India’s energy challenges as the world energy challenges.” ((EIA Energy Information Administration 4th. May, 2011).

As already described before China overtook the USA as the world´s largest emitter of greenhouse gases in 2006 and is now the 1st and India the 4th carbon dioxide emitter in the world. Nuclear power lobbyists always try to describe nuclear power as clean, without carbon dioxide output. They also argue that without nuclear power, the need of electricity in those rapid growing countries cannot be fulfilled without new nuclear power plants.

For example in China, the domestic electricity consumption in 2009 was 2643 billion kWh, which was an increase of about 6%, compared to 2008.Nuclear power lobbyists now try to cover these additional needs with nuclear power. In China, there are 13 nuclear power reactors in operation and more than 25 under construction and lots of .....

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